Forestalling failure
Friday, July 20th 2007
Compared to its acerbic criticism of the United States Department of
State's annual reports on International Narcotics Control Strategy; Human
Rights Practices, and Trafficking in Persons, and of Transparency
International's Corruption Perception Index, the administration's reaction
to the Failed States Index, recently published by the Fund for Peace and
Foreign Policy, has been uncharacteristically cool.
There can be no comfort, however, in being categorised as a weak state at
the 'warning stage' and placed on a 'watch list.' It should be a matter of
concern to citizens and the administration to be ranked 99th out of 177, way
behind Barbados ranked 130th (the lower the score, the weaker the state),
which became independent the same year as Guyana in 1966. Guyana's ranking
is an unhealthy sign and suggests that, in both absolute and relative terms,
the quality of life is uncomfortable and the standard of governance is
unsatisfactory.
The outstanding feature of failure in Guyana, as in any other faltering
state, is insecurity. The prime function of any state is to protect its
citizens. Security, especially human security, is most critical and a
state's ability to protect its people from crime that threatens residents of
town and country alike is the main indicator of its viability.
Apart from security, several other social, economic and political indicators
can be used to measure the success or weakness of states. In Guyana's case,
the brain drain, extensive corruption, economic stagnation, environmental
degradation, uneven economic development in depressed communities and the
existence of squalid squatter settlements - are also some of the most
visible signs of failure.
Other indicators of great danger are those that measure the threats to the
state's principal institutions. The strange handling of certain matters in
the high court and the president's withholding of his assent to certain
bills passed by the National Assembly, for example, inevitably create the
impression that citizens cannot rely on the court system for redress or
remedy, especially in matters involving the state, and that democratic
debate in a legislature that exists largely to ratify the decisions of a
strong executive is a waste of time.
Persistent problems with public utilities - the rickety ferry services
across the Berbice, Demerara and Essequibo rivers; erratic electricity
generation; unreliable pure water supply; near-impassable hinterland roads
and bridges and a sickly education system bleeding from the loss of teachers
and suffering from rising rates of illiteracy - all point to falling
standards which can lead to failure.
The administration's inept management of the recurrent environmental
disasters triggered by extreme weather - as in the January-February 2005 and
2006 floods - can rapidly reverse economic gains. Guyana's population,
sandwiched between shaky sea defences and wobbly water conservancies, lives
under constant threat. Most of all, as was seen at its worst during the East
Coast crime wave, the country still runs the risk of being a breeding ground
for narco-terrorism and the criminal violence that it invariably spawns.
The more anaemic the administration and anomic the population, the more
easily can criminal elements seize the opportunistic advantage of the
deteriorating internal security situation to launch their narco-trafficking
enterprises, launder dirty money, purchase weapons, recruit enforcers,
control territory and ready themselves for an assault on the state itself.
A weak state like Guyana opens opportunities for a corrupt minority but
makes life miserable for the majority. Guyana is not a failed state but it
needs to strengthen its institutions if it is to forestall failure and avoid
the fate of other frail states. The road to failure is paved with
uninvestigated disasters; unexplained executions; unregulated exploitation
of its resources; unheeded recommendations of advisory commissions;
unsuppressed narco-trafficking and unpunished bureaucratic corruption.
All these are signs of impending failure which only the blind cannot see and
only bad leadership will ignore.
On the other hand, good leadership can stop the rot and move the country
forward to success, stability and strength.
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